3916 Gray Ave SW

Birmingham, AL 35221

$34,500B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$181
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $599/mo
• Annual: $7,191/yr
• Cap rate: 27.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.44%
• DSCR: 4.31
• 1% rule: 3.12%
• Cash to close: $9,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $32k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $239 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $454 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wenonah High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 656 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $34k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.