3916 Gray Ave SW · Birmingham, AL 35221

$34,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1930 0.32 ac lot Est $68k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom/1 bathroom home offering 1,024 sq. ft. of living space. This property sits on a 0.32 acre lot. The kitchen features wooden cabinets, granite countertops, and laminate flooring, while the living room has hardwood floors and a window A/C. Bedrooms include window A/C units and closet nooks, and the bathroom features laminate flooring and a wall-mounted heater. There’s also a dedicated laundry area. The property is fully fenced with a covered front patio. The backyard is maintained with trimmed grass and includes a small storage area. Plumbing is connected to the city and in good working order, with no major electrical or foundation issues. Though vacant for two years, the prope

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Fully fenced
• Wooden cabinets

Tags

• WOODEN CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• FULLY FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wenonah High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 656 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $239 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $454 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $34k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,429 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.44%
• DSCR: 4.31
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $67,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3729 Pine Ave SW	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,067 (+4%)	6mo	$70,000	$66	72
4100 Park Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,125 (+10%)	10mo	$82,500	$73	61
1505 Collier Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	992 (-3%)	4mo	$60,000	$60	59
3417 Maple Ave SW	0.55mi	2/1.0	910 (-11%)	2mo	$50,000	$55	54
3720 Howard Ave SW	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+7%)	6mo	$64,000	$59	52
1628 Collier Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	995 (-3%)	13mo	$78,000	$78	47
520 Midway St	0.64mi	2/1.0	904 (-12%)	5mo	$33,000	$37	47
3321 Cedar Ave SW	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+7%)	10mo	$65,000	$59	42
4008 Grasselli Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,153 (+13%)	8mo	$85,000	$74	41
1037 Daniel Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	904 (-12%)	9mo	$88,000	$97	40
3008 Elmyra Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+8%)	13mo	$88,000	$80	36
3304 Spaulding St SW	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+11%)	8mo	$40,000	$35	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $35,099
• Equity at exit: $7,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.50×
• Total profit: $82,114
• Equity at exit: $7,758

Cash invested: $9,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35221

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$181
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $667/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $318

Max offer price $34,500

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $609	+0% $599	+5% $589	+10% $580
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $557	+0% $599	+5% $642	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $608	base $599	+0.5pp $590	+1.0pp $581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,625
• Closing costs: $1,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3736 Oak Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,050	$1.07	25d	1	0.21mi
3729 Maple Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,200	$1.19	45d	1	0.23mi
3729 Pine Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1067	$1,100	$1.03	23d	1	0.25mi
4029 Walnut Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,369	$1.05	5d	1	0.29mi
3616 Maple Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1488	$950	$0.64	45d	1	0.37mi
4120 George Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	944	$850	$0.90	25d	1	0.50mi
1441 Creel St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,275	$0.97	5d	1	0.58mi
4009 Grasselli Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	875	$900	$1.03	25d	1	0.60mi
3720 Howard Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	25d	1	0.60mi
3400 Walnut Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1133	$1,200	$1.06	45d	1	0.63mi
1433 Rayfield Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1064	$950	$0.89	45d	1	0.69mi
3332 Walnut Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1339	$750	$0.56	21d	1	0.70mi
2804 32nd Way SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	45d	1	0.72mi
408 Midway St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1301	$1,075	$0.83	21d	1	0.73mi
2805 32nd Way SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	792	$900	$1.14	45d	1	0.75mi
1376 Creel Ct Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,000	$0.99	45d	1	0.76mi
1112 S Gale Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1053	$1,175	$1.12	45d	1	0.76mi
1721 Collier Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	925	$800	$0.86	45d	1	0.78mi
1412 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,203	$0.99	18d	1	0.79mi
537 Grant St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1444	$1,200	$0.83	25d	1	0.81mi
517 Grant St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$850	$0.93	25d	1	0.87mi
120 Parkwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,150	$0.94	18d	1	0.92mi
336 McPherson Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1094	$1,100	$1.01	25d	1	0.93mi
340 McPherson Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	924	$910	$0.98	45d	1	0.94mi
3640 Wenonah Rd SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	25d	1	0.98mi
3640 Wenonah Rd SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	13d	1	0.98mi
1417 Brighton Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1048	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.99mi
2300 31st St SW Unit ENSLEY2316 A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	5d	1	1.03mi
830 Burwell St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1011	$1,200	$1.19	45d	1	1.06mi
1838 31st St SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,223	$0.87	18d	1	1.25mi
1272 Meadow Ln Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	744	$800	$1.08	45d	1	1.28mi
3000 Dawson Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$925	$0.85	45d	1	1.29mi
1340 Pineview Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,075	$0.96	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-12-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-24
   listed $34,500 Active
3. 1984-05-11
   soldstatus $12,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,933
• − Property taxes: −$667
• − Insurance: −$172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,033
• − Management: −$1,033
• − Depreciation: −$1,004
• Taxable income: $7,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,697
• After-tax cash flow: $5,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 3,127

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.32%
• Current HPI: 121.0566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+169.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $34,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1984-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $12,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $667 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.