Lapis Plan

Keenesburg, CO 80643

$445,950F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,199 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 573 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,789/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,527
• Tax + insurance: −$803
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $-338/mo
• Annual: $-4,052/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $134,949

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $446k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $433k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (15.0% below list).
• It's been on market 573 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $379k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hoff Elementary School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #747 of 966 statewide, top 80%, 319 students, 42% FRL); Weld Central Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #207 of 270 statewide, top 79%, 525 students, 53% FRL); Weld Central Senior High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 697 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 573 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.