Lapis Plan · Keenesburg, CO 80643

$445,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,199 sqft · SingleFamily · 573 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

Key facts

• Study
• Flex space
• Loft

Tags

• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• FLEX SPACE
• STUDY
• LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $445,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $481,961.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $446k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $433k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $379k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 573 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,866 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 573 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,961
• List price: $445,950
• Delta: -7.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Spruce St	0.11mi	3/3.0	2,199 (0%)	1mo	$483,450	$220	92
307 W Owen Ave	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,199 (0%)	13mo	$514,950	$234	84
307 W Owen Ave	0.10mi	3/3.0	2,199 (0%)	13mo	$514,950	$234	82
316 Smith Ave	0.23mi	3/3.0	2,204 (+0%)	11mo	$534,950	$243	78
308 Smith Ave	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,216 (+1%)	16mo	$514,950	$232	70
308 Smith Ave	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,216 (+1%)	16mo	$514,950	$232	68
210 E Joshua Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,416 (+10%)	2mo	$479,900	$199	62
360 S Elm St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,986 (-10%)	13mo	$410,000	$206	58
25 Johnson Cir	0.71mi	3/3.0	2,248 (+2%)	11mo	$407,000	$181	52
210 E Gandy Ave	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,520 (+15%)	2mo	$158,000	$63	45
255 S Trader St	0.36mi	3/4.0	2,500 (+14%)	21mo	$485,000	$194	37
320 E Lambert Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,494 (+13%)	23mo	$490,000	$196	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-99,549
• Equity at exit: $71,862

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-114,147
• Equity at exit: $41,671

Cash invested: $134,949 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80643

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,527
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$602 /mo · $7,229/yr
• Insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,216

Max offer price $433,098

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-171	+0% $-338	+5% $-504	+10% $-671
Rent	-10% $-637	-5% $-487	+0% $-338	+5% $-188	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-215	base $-338	+0.5pp $-463	+1.0pp $-590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,490
• Closing costs: $14,459
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,950 Active 573 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,950 Active 570 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,950 Active 569 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,950 Active 568 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,950 Active 567 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,950 Active 565 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,950 Active 561 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,950 Active 560 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,950 Active 559 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $445,950 Active 556 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,950 Active 555 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,950 Active 554 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,950 Active 553 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,950 Active 552 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $445,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

16. 2026-03-03
    price $480,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

17. 2026-02-17
    price $479,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

18. 2025-07-29
    price $478,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

19. 2025-07-02
    price $475,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

20. 2025-07-02
    price $473,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

21. 2025-05-17
    price $475,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

22. 2025-05-17
    price $473,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

23. 2025-04-29
    price $475,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

24. 2025-01-01
    price $473,950 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

25. 2024-11-26
    listed $459,950 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    The main floor of the beautiful Lapis plan offers an inviting great room and an open dining area that flows into a corner kitchen with a center island and walk-in pantry. This level will either feature a flex space or a study. Upstairs, enjoy a convenient laundry and a luxurious primary suite. This second floor will be built with either a loft or an extra bedroom. Additional features may include a cozy great room fireplace. You'll love the professionally curated finishes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,997
• − Property taxes: −$7,229
• − Insurance: −$2,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,637
• − Management: −$3,637
• − Depreciation: −$14,021
• Taxable loss: −$12,468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,992
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District Re-3J
• NCES district ID: 0804920
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,814
• Composite: 22.63/100
• National rank: #8062
• State rank: #64 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keenesburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keenesburg, CO
• City population: 4,257
• Population (ZIP): 4,257

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.47%
• Current HPI: 287.5564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $445,950 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $480,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $479,950 Zillow
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $478,950 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $475,950 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $473,950 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $475,950 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $473,950 Zillow
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $475,950 Zillow
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $473,950 Zillow
• 2024-11-26 Listed $459,950 Zillow