156 Comanche Trl

Jolly, TX 76367

$132,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,734/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $458/mo
• Annual: $5,496/yr
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.87%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $36,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($913 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Henrietta ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #219 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.