156 Comanche Trl · Jolly, TX 76367

$132,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Live the lake life! 3BR/2BA 18’x76’ mobile home with upgraded 2x4 solid construction & sheetrock on a full concrete slab. This home features include 2026 water heater; 2017 plumbing, electrical, septic, roof & 50 amp RV hookup. Designer vibes with laminate flooring, fixtures & built-ins. You will love the modern kitchen, spacious master suite & bath with double sinks, oversized tub, & separate shower. Total electric with all 2017 appliances & w/ d to convey. Decks added to enjoy the spectacular lake views.

Key facts

• 50 amp rv hookup
• Laminate flooring
• Modular home

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• MODULAR HOME
• 50 AMP RV HOOKUP
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS MASTER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Henrietta ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #219 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($913 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,040 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.87%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $101,089
• Equity at exit: $118,916

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $274,801
• Equity at exit: $256,447

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76367

• Home prices YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$165 /mo · $1,980/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,155

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $504	+0% $458	+5% $412	+10% $367
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $390	+0% $458	+5% $527	+10% $595
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $492	base $458	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,000
• Closing costs: $3,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $132,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $132,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $132,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $132,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $132,000 Active 558-char remark
18. 2025-12-22
    price $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,394
• − Property taxes: −$1,980
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$3,840
• Taxable income: $3,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$866
• After-tax cash flow: $4,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrietta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822980
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,029
• Composite: 40.62/100
• National rank: #3691
• State rank: #219 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jolly

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #9959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,013

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,537 people
• By 2030: 9,042 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 8,090 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 7,255 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 5,834 · -38.8%
• By 2100: 4,491 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.7) · D 9.9% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.6pp · 2024: -79.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.7 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+76.6 2012: R+69.7 2008: R+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.29%
• Current HPI: 387.78
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $150,000 WFAOR

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $149 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.