4015 Lost Vly Unit LOS4015

Dubuque, IA 52001

$72,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $625/mo
• Annual: $7,503/yr
• Cap rate: 16.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.22%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 1.97%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#7 in IA, #119 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Dubuque Community School District (urban): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #205 of 289 in IA (top 71%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marshall Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #494 of 616 statewide, top 83%, 330 students, 62% FRL); Thomas Jefferson Middle School (math 43% / reading 44%, grade D, #234 of 246 statewide, top 95%, 459 students, 61% FRL); Hempstead High School (math 64% / reading 71%, grade B, #186 of 336 statewide, top 57%, 1,584 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 473 units permitted in Dubuque County in 2024 (319 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dubuque County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.5% in Dubuque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior siding — Slight discoloration
• Minor: landscaping — Overgrown grass