4015 Lost Vly Unit LOS4015 · Dubuque, IA 52001

$72,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as scenic views, community events, and a clubhouse, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 88 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.5% in Dubuque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#7 in IA, #119 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Dubuque Community School District (urban): math 63% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #205 of 289 in IA (top 71%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marshall Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #494 of 616 statewide, top 83%, 330 students, 62% FRL); Thomas Jefferson Middle School (math 43% / reading 44%, grade D, #234 of 246 statewide, top 95%, 459 students, 61% FRL); Hempstead High School (math 64% / reading 71%, grade B, #186 of 336 statewide, top 57%, 1,584 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 473 units permitted in Dubuque County in 2024 (319 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dubuque County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,680 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.22%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $32,036
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $95,976
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52001

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $630

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $675	-5% $650	+0% $625	+5% $600	+10% $575
Rent	-10% $513	-5% $569	+0% $625	+5% $681	+10% $738
Rate	-1.0pp $661	-0.5pp $644	base $625	+0.5pp $607	+1.0pp $588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
823 Hawkeye Dr Dubuque, IA	2.0	1.5	1228	$1,550	$1.26	46d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $72,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $72,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $72,000 Active 67 DOM
19. 2026-03-25
    listed $72,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as scenic views, community events, and a clubhouse, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $6,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,622
• After-tax cash flow: $5,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Slight discoloration
• Minor landscaping — Overgrown grass

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Slight discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · Overgrown grass	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dubuque Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1909480
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,237
• Composite: 54.51/100
• National rank: #1345
• State rank: #205 of 289 in IA

Livability — Dubuque

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #119

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dubuque, IA
• County: Dubuque County · 60,106 people
• City population: 60,106
• Metro: Dubuque, IA
• Population (ZIP): 43,101
• Household income: $61,643
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1940.0

Population outlook (Dubuque County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,359 people
• By 2030: 106,472 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 112,043 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 116,553 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 128,014 · +23.9%
• By 2100: 132,892 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dubuque

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.36%
• Current HPI: 173.5536
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.63%
• Metro: Dubuque, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $72,000 Zillow