165 Shady Spot Rd

Gilbert, SC 29072

$305,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,578/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#52 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Creek Elementary (math 56% / reading 54%, grade C, #119 of 597 statewide, top 20%, 863 students, 18% FRL); Pleasant Hill Middle (math 50% / reading 58%, grade B-, #27 of 229 statewide, top 12%, 748 students, 21% FRL); Lexington High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #23 of 196 statewide, top 11%, 2,410 students, 17% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.