165 Shady Spot Rd · Gilbert, SC 29072

$305,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2022 6,098 sqft lot Est $297k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to The Julie A, a beautifully designed 4-bedroom split-level home that blends comfort and modern style. The spacious kitchen features a center island, white cabinets, and Luna Pearl granite, opening seamlessly to the great room and dining area, perfect for entertaining. The main-level owner’s suite is a true retreat with a large walk-in closet, double vanities, oversized shower, garden tub, and private water closet. Upstairs, a large finished 4th bedroom completes the layout. Enjoy luxury vinyl flooring throughout main living areas, baths, and laundry, plus a covered porch for relaxing outdoors. This home also includes a home automation system, Bluetooth speakers in the k

Key facts

• Oversized shower
• Large walk-in closet
• Double vanities

Tags

• LUNA PEARL GRANITE
• MAIN-LEVEL OWNER’S SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• OVERSIZED SHOWER
• GARDEN TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#52 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Creek Elementary (math 56% / reading 54%, grade C, #119 of 597 statewide, top 20%, 863 students, 18% FRL); Pleasant Hill Middle (math 50% / reading 58%, grade B-, #27 of 229 statewide, top 12%, 748 students, 21% FRL); Lexington High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #23 of 196 statewide, top 11%, 2,410 students, 17% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,859 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,312
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
676 Cloudreach Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,008 (+3%)	19mo	$305,000	$152	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-57,341
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-58,835
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29072

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,980/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $281,777

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-45	+0% $-131	+5% $-218	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-221	+0% $-131	+5% $-41	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-54	base $-131	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Sundrop St Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2321	$2,295	$0.99	5d	1	0.18mi
607 Wild Tulip Ct Gilbert, SC	4.0	2.5	2358	$2,145	$0.91	5d	1	1.06mi
622 Wild Tulip Ct Gilbert, SC	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,875	$1.04	13d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   historical Active - Contingent
3. 2026-02-27
   price $305,000
4. 2026-02-11
   price $315,000
5. 2026-01-29
   price $325,000
6. 2026-01-13
   listed $340,000 Active
7. 2022-09-09
   historical
8. 2022-08-24
   price $331,429
9. 2022-07-05
   listed $356,429 Active
10. 2022-05-31
    soldstatus $471,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,980 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,980 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,980
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$6,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $96/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #7008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 69,407
• Household income: $106,382
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.53%
• Current HPI: 212.3235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-35.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-28 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $305,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $315,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $325,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $340,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2022-09-09 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-08-24 Price Changed $331,429 Consolidated MLS
• 2022-07-05 Listed $356,429 Consolidated MLS
• 2022-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $471,600 Public Records