650 S St Johns St

St. Augustine, FL 32084

$285,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 854 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-120/mo
• Annual: $-1,437/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otis A. Mason Elementary School (math 76% / reading 60%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 45% FRL); R J Murray Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 695 students, 50% FRL); St. Augustine High School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 1,784 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 20% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 631 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $285k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.