5 Susan Dr

Ocean Acres, NJ 08005

$159,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,978/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$827
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $421/mo
• Annual: $5,048/yr
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.28%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cecil S. Collins Elementary (784 students, 38% FRL); Russell O. Brackman Middle School (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 579 students, 33% FRL); Barnegat High School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #265 of 399 statewide, top 67%, 983 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.