5 Susan Dr · Ocean Acres, NJ 08005

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $177k · 10% under $827/mo HOA · 28% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Brighton at Barnegat community. This spacious manufactured home offers a comfortable layout with a living room, dining area, and an additional sitting room that provides great flexibility for everyday use. The kitchen and bathrooms have been thoughtfully updated, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Enjoy outdoor living with both a front deck and a private back deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The lot offers a nice buffer of privacy behind the home while still being close to all the community amenities and conveniences of Barnegat. A solid, inviting home in a well-kept community, ready for its next owner to move in and make it their own.

Key facts

• Front deck
• Private back deck
• Buffer of privacy

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN AND BATHROOMS
• FRONT DECK
• PRIVATE BACK DECK
• BUFFER OF PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.2% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.28%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,900
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Susan Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	1mo	$136,000	$94	99
11 Casey Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	3mo	$250,000	$179	79
6 Doris Ct	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	21mo	$50,000	$36	70
136 Chestnut Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$220,000	$143	64
110 Chestnut Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+3%)	2mo	$182,500	$122	64
154 Brighton Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-14%)	2mo	$170,000	$136	64
6 Kimberly Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$89,000	$66	62
3 Casey Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	11mo	$233,900	$174	61
51 Brighton Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	21mo	$140,000	$104	57
117 Pinewood Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	20mo	$158,000	$122	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,437
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $38,001
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$827
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $476	+0% $421	+5% $365	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $303	+0% $421	+5% $538	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $461	base $421	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $827 · $9,924/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $136,000 Closed 719-char remark

   Show marketing remark (719 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Brighton at Barnegat community. This spacious manufactured home offers a comfortable layout with a living room, dining area, and an additional sitting room that provides great flexibility for everyday use. The kitchen and bathrooms have been thoughtfully updated, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Enjoy outdoor living with both a front deck and a private back deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The lot offers a nice buffer of privacy behind the home while still being close to all the community amenities and conveniences of Barnegat. A solid, inviting home in a well-kept community, ready for its next owner to move in and make it their own.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-01
   status Pending 719-char remark

   Show marketing remark (719 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Brighton at Barnegat community. This spacious manufactured home offers a comfortable layout with a living room, dining area, and an additional sitting room that provides great flexibility for everyday use. The kitchen and bathrooms have been thoughtfully updated, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Enjoy outdoor living with both a front deck and a private back deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The lot offers a nice buffer of privacy behind the home while still being close to all the community amenities and conveniences of Barnegat. A solid, inviting home in a well-kept community, ready for its next owner to move in and make it their own.

4. 2026-01-22
   price $159,900
5. 2026-01-21
   price $159,900 719-char remark

   Show marketing remark (719 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Brighton at Barnegat community. This spacious manufactured home offers a comfortable layout with a living room, dining area, and an additional sitting room that provides great flexibility for everyday use. The kitchen and bathrooms have been thoughtfully updated, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Enjoy outdoor living with both a front deck and a private back deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The lot offers a nice buffer of privacy behind the home while still being close to all the community amenities and conveniences of Barnegat. A solid, inviting home in a well-kept community, ready for its next owner to move in and make it their own.

6. 2025-12-06
   listed $164,900 Active 719-char remark

   Show marketing remark (719 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Brighton at Barnegat community. This spacious manufactured home offers a comfortable layout with a living room, dining area, and an additional sitting room that provides great flexibility for everyday use. The kitchen and bathrooms have been thoughtfully updated, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Enjoy outdoor living with both a front deck and a private back deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The lot offers a nice buffer of privacy behind the home while still being close to all the community amenities and conveniences of Barnegat. A solid, inviting home in a well-kept community, ready for its next owner to move in and make it their own.

7. 2025-12-06
   listed $164,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (719 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Brighton at Barnegat community. This spacious manufactured home offers a comfortable layout with a living room, dining area, and an additional sitting room that provides great flexibility for everyday use. The kitchen and bathrooms have been thoughtfully updated, giving the home a fresh and modern feel. Enjoy outdoor living with both a front deck and a private back deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The lot offers a nice buffer of privacy behind the home while still being close to all the community amenities and conveniences of Barnegat. A solid, inviting home in a well-kept community, ready for its next owner to move in and make it their own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,859
• − Management: −$2,859
• − HOA: −$9,924
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$789
• After-tax cash flow: $4,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean Acres

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #15187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 25,936
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $136,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $159,900 MOMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $164,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $164,900 MOMLS