1225 Milfoil Dr

Fort Worth, TX 76247

$273,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,173 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,761/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax + insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$67
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-303/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $76,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-303/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $273k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 173% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.