1225 Milfoil Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76247

$273,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,173 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,922 sqft lot $126/sqft · 30% below area Est $392k · 30% under $67/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The list price is not indicative of seller's final reserve amount. This property is part of an online bidding event. Inspections of this property and contact with occupants are strictly prohibited. Property is sold as is and no for sale sign allowed.

Key facts

• 4,922 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include clubhouse, community pool, greenbelt, jogging/bike path, and playground; Property restrictions: deed; Will subdivide: subdivided; Directions: From 114 head north on Winding Meadows Dr, right on Canyon Maple, right on Post Cedar, left on Milfoil. House on left.
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee; HOA covers full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees; HOA managed by Vision Community Management

Exterior

• Parking: Detached alley access and driveway available; Garage faces rear; Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Co-op electric; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Property attached (yes); Preowned home built in 2022; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Subdivision: Tradition Ph 1b
• Construction: Brick exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Above-ground pool; Interior lot; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level; additional bedrooms on second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Window coverings; Two living areas; Two dining areas; 5 total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-303/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $273k).
• Recommended offer: $265k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 173% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,810 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,670
• List price: $273,000
• Delta: -30.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1361 Dillard Creek Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,215 (+2%)	0mo	$399,000	$180	74
16529 Woodside Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,093 (-4%)	1mo	$295,000	$141	69
1801 Kittredge Way	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,136 (-2%)	1mo	$310,000	$145	64
921 Schuberts Rd	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,241 (+3%)	2mo	$485,000	$216	58
15936 Stableford Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,039 (-6%)	1mo	$409,970	$201	53
1345 Elkford Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (-7%)	0mo	$320,000	$158	52
937 Schuberts Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-7%)	1mo	$389,390	$193	49
812 Mountain Aloe Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,992 (-8%)	0mo	$449,000	$225	46
949 Schuberts Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-7%)	0mo	$399,590	$198	45
1360 Castlegar Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,355 (+8%)	1mo	$360,000	$153	45
825 Mountain Aloe	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,476 (+14%)	2mo	$469,000	$189	45
1052 Alberta Spruce Rd	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,487 (+14%)	2mo	$449,890	$181	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-53,701
• Equity at exit: $40,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-79,137
• Equity at exit: $23,604

Cash invested: $76,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1498
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,761 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax from tax record: −$594 /mo · $7,128/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,793

Max offer price $268,534

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,250
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1237 Milfoil Dr Justin, TX	4.0	3.5	2561	$2,950	$1.15	5d	1	0.06mi
1275 Western Yarrow Ave Justin, TX	3.0	3.0	2099	$2,750	$1.31	24d	1	0.11mi
1104 Milfoil Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,500	$1.43	1d	1	0.12mi
1133 Canuela Way Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	3d	1	0.15mi
16933 Sophora Ave Justin, TX	4.0	3.5	2574	$2,999	$1.17	43d	1	0.17mi
1104 Superbloom Ave Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1992	$3,000	$1.51	24d	1	0.25mi
1073 Canuela Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2519	$2,795	$1.11	2d	1	0.26mi
1448 Sun Garden Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.5	2514	$3,000	$1.19	16d	1	0.35mi
1309 Water Canna Dr Northlake, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1833	$3,350	$1.83	1d	18	0.35mi
1329 Water Canna Dr Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,403	$1.50	43d	1	0.35mi
1336 Water Canna Dr Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	1914	$2,819	$1.47	43d	1	0.38mi
1444 Indian Mallow Ct Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$3,020	$1.46	12d	1	0.44mi
1617 Rialto Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,940	$1.14	12d	1	0.44mi
16453 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	1d	1	0.46mi
1440 Native Blooms Way Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,760	$1.62	7d	1	0.48mi
1713 Baxter Springs Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2093	$2,200	$1.05	43d	1	0.51mi
16408 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,475	$1.35	24d	1	0.51mi
1705 Carolina Ridge Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,945	$1.29	43d	1	0.51mi
1453 Native Blooms Way Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,760	$1.62	21d	1	0.52mi
1724 Trego Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,900	$1.11	43d	1	0.55mi
1708 Sierra Meadow Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,125	$1.29	21d	1	0.56mi
1401 Elkford Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,400	$1.28	24d	1	0.58mi
1724 Arbuckle Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,850	$1.12	18d	1	0.59mi
845 Ranchland Rd Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	2673	$3,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.61mi
16329 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2093	$2,550	$1.22	17d	1	0.62mi
1325 Amazon Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,050	$1.27	11d	1	0.66mi
949 Schuberts Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,900	$1.44	4d	1	0.68mi
949 Schuberts Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,900	$1.44	1d	1	0.68mi
1212 Amazon Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,950	$1.29	43d	1	0.69mi
16028 Bronte Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2127	$2,595	$1.22	24d	1	0.89mi
16028 Bronte Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,550	$1.21	43d	1	0.89mi
16012 Bronte Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2142	$2,600	$1.21	43d	1	0.90mi
1973 Lariat Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,895	$1.26	18d	1	0.92mi
2036 Navada Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.5	2609	$2,260	$0.87	15d	1	1.22mi
1224 Napier Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,650	$1.21	43d	1	1.23mi
1009 Croxley Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	18d	1	1.36mi
15736 Hazelhurst Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2186	$2,600	$1.19	11d	1	1.37mi
15537 Putney Way Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2093	$2,650	$1.27	18d	1	1.42mi
1033 Southwark Dr , TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,600	$1.29	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $273,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $273,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $273,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $100,000 Active 250-char remark
15. 2026-05-15
    historical
16. 2026-04-11
    price $369,500
17. 2025-12-28
    listed $379,500 Active
18. 2025-12-19
    historical
19. 2025-10-30
    price $379,500
20. 2025-10-03
    price $389,900
21. 2025-09-19
    listed $399,990 Active
22. 2025-09-17
    historical
23. 2025-08-30
    price $399,990
24. 2025-07-05
    price $409,900
25. 2025-06-08
    listed $424,500 Active
26. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,128 · $594/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,128 · $594/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$7,128
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,650
• − Management: −$2,650
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$4,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,128
• After-tax cash flow: $825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior and clean the gutters to enhance curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $273,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $369,500 NTREIS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $379,500 NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $379,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $389,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $399,990 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $399,990 NTREIS
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $409,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-08 Listed $424,500 NTREIS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+60.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,128 · -13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.