823 La Luz Dr

Belen, NM 87002

$159,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built 1984 · Other · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $123/mo
• Annual: $1,479/yr
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#72 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Belen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.