823 La Luz Dr · Belen, NM 87002

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Other · 64 Days on market

Built 1984 6,534 sqft lot $147/sqft · 20% below area Est $200k · 20% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your opportunity on this 3 Bedroom, 1 bath home in a developed neighborhood. Large backyard with access for many possibilities. Large living room with attached dining room have laminate wood flooring, kitchen, utility room and bathroom have tile floors. Central Forced air with evaporative cooler. Covered front patio to enjoy the shade and outdoors. Home is being sold as is no repairs to be made.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Covered front patio
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• COVERED FRONT PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Belen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#72 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,941 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,555
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -19.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,082
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,718
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87002

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,589/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,313

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1111 Camino del Llano Belen, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	19d	1	0.20mi
502 Laura Ct Belen, NM	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,600	$1.51	43d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $159,900 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Don't miss your opportunity on this 3 Bedroom, 1 bath home in a developed neighborhood. Large backyard with access for many possibilities. Large living room with attached dining room have laminate wood flooring, kitchen, utility room and bathroom have tile floors. Central Forced air with evaporative cooler. Covered front patio to enjoy the shade and outdoors. Home is being sold as is no repairs to be made.

15. 2026-04-06
    listed $167,500 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Don't miss your opportunity on this 3 Bedroom, 1 bath home in a developed neighborhood. Large backyard with access for many possibilities. Large living room with attached dining room have laminate wood flooring, kitchen, utility room and bathroom have tile floors. Central Forced air with evaporative cooler. Covered front patio to enjoy the shade and outdoors. Home is being sold as is no repairs to be made.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,589 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,589 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,589
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$285
• After-tax cash flow: $1,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belen Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500180
• Math proficiency: 19% —
• Reading proficiency: 28% —
• Median HH income: $38,445
• Composite: 22.79/100
• National rank: #13408
• State rank: #50 of 95 in NM

Livability — Belen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #14908

Category grades

Amenities C Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belen, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 21,265
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 21,265
• Household income: $51,961
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 31% Two or more races 28% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.62%
• Current HPI: 219.5581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $159,900 Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $167,500 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,589 · +25.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.