15435 Dillon Hill Cir

Houston, TX 77086

$244,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,290 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$590
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-481/mo
• Annual: $-5,774/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.42%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $68,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Epps Island El (math 28% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 541 students, 85% FRL); Klein Forest H S (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,481 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 37% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Klein ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.