15435 Dillon Hill Cir · Houston, TX 77086

$244,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2005 5,135 sqft lot $107/sqft · 10% below area Est $273k · 10% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

* * BRAND NEW JUNE 2026 HVAC JUST INSTALLED & JUNE 2026 ROOF TO BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO CLOSING!! Enjoy instant peace of mind w/ a 4-Ton, 14.3 SEER HVAC system w/ 10-YR WARRANTY. And a new, top-tier Bradford White water heater Feb 2026! Stop compromising on square footage and start living large. This high-performance home offers an unbeatable price-to-space ratio you won't find anywhere else. Featuring a massive owner’s suite and a huge upstairs loft perfect for a dual-office or media hub, there is a dedicated spot for everything. THE UPGRADES: Enjoy a "never-lived-in" feel with Brand-New March 2026 Stainless Appliances and sleek, zero-carpet LVP flooring. THE PRIVACY:

Key facts

• Private sitting room
• Upstairs loft
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE SITTING ROOM
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• ZERO-CARPET LVP FLOORING
• OVERSIZED LOT
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Blue Creek Ranch HOA; Annual HOA fee of $395

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Corner lot; Cul-de-sac lot; Greenbelt

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Kitchen (First floor) — 14 x 9; Breakfast nook (First floor) — 14 x 10; Kitchen/dining layout
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor) — 23 x 15; Bedroom (Second floor) — 15 x 12; Bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 12
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom (Second floor) — 11 x 8; Bathroom (Second floor) — 9 x 5
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Combined living and dining area; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor) — 7 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Epps Island El (math 28% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 541 students, 85% FRL); Klein Forest H S (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,481 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 37% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Klein ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,898 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.42%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,762
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -10.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15519 Hensen Creek Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,280 (-0%)	4mo	$289,900	$127	94
10002 Deer Track Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,162 (-6%)	3mo	$335,000	$155	77
15507 Miller House Ln	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,406 (+5%)	4mo	$265,000	$110	73
6407 Silver Shade Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,479 (+8%)	12mo	$343,900	$139	63
10230 Kennewick Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,446 (+7%)	7mo	$309,900	$127	59
13619 Clarks Fork Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,050 (-10%)	19mo	$249,900	$122	59
15427 Western Skies Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-13%)	12mo	$244,900	$122	57
10203 Cascade Hills Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,481 (+8%)	2mo	$330,000	$133	56
15214 Western Skies Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,980 (-14%)	8mo	$255,000	$129	53
10318 Heaven Leigh Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,217 (-3%)	21mo	$300,000	$135	53
10334 Cascade Hills Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,493 (+9%)	6mo	$345,900	$139	52
7754 Willow Mint Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,145 (-6%)	12mo	$219,900	$103	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.6% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-23,942
• Equity at exit: $91,325

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-24,958
• Equity at exit: $127,574

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77086

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$488 /mo · $5,858/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,415

Max offer price $159,898

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15127 Blue Creek Ranch Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2630	$1,925	$0.73	8d	1	0.25mi
9526 Golden Wood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.92mi
9450 Fairbanks N Houston Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2228	$1,800	$0.81	44d	1	1.01mi
5113 Caldera Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1847	$1,841	$1.00	7d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 679-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $244,900 Active 882-char remark
16. 2026-05-13
    historical
17. 2026-04-08
    price $249,000
18. 2026-02-26
    status Active
19. 2026-02-16
    status Pending
20. 2026-02-02
    listed $255,000 Active
21. 2026-02-02
    historical
22. 2026-01-12
    price $265,000
23. 2025-12-04
    price $275,000
24. 2025-10-29
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,858 · $488/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,858 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$5,858
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$10,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,653
• Household income: $58,200
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 26% Black 19% Asian 9% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 54% Vietnamese 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Current HPI: 281.0065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.19%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $279,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,858 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.