76 Ponds Edge

Deltaville, VA 23035

$499,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,603 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-1,847/mo
• Annual: $-22,158/yr
• Cap rate: 1.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.86%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.30%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (65.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (69.8% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($454k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (69.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#434 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $499k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 1.1% in Deltaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.