76 Ponds Edge · Deltaville, VA 23035

$499,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,603 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1995 1.72 ac lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $673k · 26% under $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your private retreat. This beautifully designed home has 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths nestled on a peaceful pond with your own private pier. With a mother-in-law suite, this is perfect for multi-generational living, guests, or a private home office. Outside you can enjoy warm days with an above ground pool surrounded by nature and pond views. Drive your golf cart to the neighborhood park with a dock and boat ramp waiting for you! You are also just minutes away from the beautiful Hallieford beach and a public dock. This property has calm and peaceful living and a sense of privacy that's hard to find. Come see what a treasure this home truly is.

Key facts

• Mother-in-law suite
• Above ground pool
• Private pier

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• MOTHER-IN-LAW SUITE
• PRIVATE PIER
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• POND VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (65.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (69.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (69.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 1.0% in Deltaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#434 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($454k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $499k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,569 (69.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.86%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 27.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $673,464
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -25.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Skipjack Ln	0.11mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,720 (+4%)	14mo	$664,000	$244	70
212 Waverly Ln	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,733 (+5%)	11mo	$775,000	$284	45
1392 Hallieford Rd	0.45mi	3/3.0	2,226 (-14%)	17mo	$355,000	$159	36
369 Queens Creek Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,361 (-9%)	21mo	$650,000	$275	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $153,931
• Equity at exit: $449,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $545,328
• Equity at exit: $969,447

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23035

• Home prices YoY: 16.8%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 27.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,500/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-1,847

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,843

Max offer price $172,802

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,564	-5% $-1,705	+0% $-1,847	+5% $-1,988	+10% $-2,129
Rent	-10% $-1,965	-5% $-1,906	+0% $-1,847	+5% $-1,787	+10% $-1,728
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,595	-0.5pp $-1,720	base $-1,847	+0.5pp $-1,976	+1.0pp $-2,107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $499,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $499,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $514,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $514,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $514,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $514,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $514,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome to your private retreat. This beautifully designed home has 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths nestled on a peaceful pond with your own private pier. With a mother-in-law suite, this is perfect for multi-generational living, guests, or a private home office. Outside you can enjoy warm days with an above ground pool surrounded by nature and pond views. Drive your golf cart to the neighborhood park with a dock and boat ramp waiting for you! You are also just minutes away from the beautiful Hallieford beach and a public dock. This property has calm and peaceful living and a sense of privacy that's hard to find. Come see what a treasure this home truly is.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $519,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome to your private retreat. This beautifully designed home has 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths nestled on a peaceful pond with your own private pier. With a mother-in-law suite, this is perfect for multi-generational living, guests, or a private home office. Outside you can enjoy warm days with an above ground pool surrounded by nature and pond views. Drive your golf cart to the neighborhood park with a dock and boat ramp waiting for you! You are also just minutes away from the beautiful Hallieford beach and a public dock. This property has calm and peaceful living and a sense of privacy that's hard to find. Come see what a treasure this home truly is.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $530,000 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Welcome to your private retreat. This beautifully designed home has 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths nestled on a peaceful pond with your own private pier. With a mother-in-law suite, this is perfect for multi-generational living, guests, or a private home office. Outside you can enjoy warm days with an above ground pool surrounded by nature and pond views. Drive your golf cart to the neighborhood park with a dock and boat ramp waiting for you! You are also just minutes away from the beautiful Hallieford beach and a public dock. This property has calm and peaceful living and a sense of privacy that's hard to find. Come see what a treasure this home truly is.

19. 2015-11-30
    soldstatus $295,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,092 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,592/yr (+$133/mo · 63.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$2,500
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$32,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,757
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Deltaville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #434
• US rank: #18625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,528
• Population (ZIP): 1,549

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 11% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.07%
• Current HPI: 104.65
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+74.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $514,000 CBRAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $519,000 CBRAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $530,000 CBRAR
• 2015-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,500 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.