5014 Dunmor Deer Lick Rd

Dunmor, KY 42339

$85,999B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $413/mo
• Annual: $4,958/yr
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.59%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $24,080

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#279 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Logan County (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #32 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.5% in Dunmor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.