5014 Dunmor Deer Lick Rd · Dunmor, KY 42339

$85,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1976 1.02 ac lot $37/sqft · 20% below area Est $113k · 24% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The purchaser has the right to make any and all inspections, but the seller will not make/pay for any repairs. Purchaser shall be responsible to pay for preparation of Deed/Title, closing fees, clean out expense, inspection fees, any other expense associated with closing the property. Seller shall not be responsible for any closing expenses. If the seller passes away then this contract is null and void.

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.5% in Dunmor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#279 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Logan County (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #32 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.59%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,098
• List price: $85,999
• Delta: -23.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8721 State Route 973	0.57mi	2/— (-1)	2,002 (-14%)	2mo	$70,000	$35	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $14,877
• Equity at exit: $15,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $48,932
• Equity at exit: $12,138

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42339

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $325/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $85,999

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-19
   listed $85,999 Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   The purchaser has the right to make any and all inspections, but the seller will not make/pay for any repairs. Purchaser shall be responsible to pay for preparation of Deed/Title, closing fees, clean out expense, inspection fees, any other expense associated with closing the property. Seller shall not be responsible for any closing expenses. If the seller passes away then this contract is null and void.

2. 2025-10-02
   status Active
3. 2025-05-29
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-04-17
   listed $109,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $325 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 127.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$325
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $3,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$901
• After-tax cash flow: $4,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Logan County
• NCES district ID: 2103540
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $42,577
• Composite: 33.34/100
• National rank: #5492
• State rank: #32 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dunmor

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #13588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunmor, KY
• Population (ZIP): 878

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,133 people
• By 2030: 25,572 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 24,247 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 22,849 · -12.6%
• By 2075: 19,587 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 15,927 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Vietnam

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 21.9% · R 76.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -28.6pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Current HPI: 148.2234
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $85,999 RASKMLS
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — RASKMLS
• 2025-05-29 Contingent — RASKMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $109,900 RASKMLS

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $325 · -7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.