2040 Twin Lakes Blvd

East Columbia, TX 77486

$325,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$724
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-345/mo
• Annual: $-4,144/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $325k implies a 3724% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?