2040 Twin Lakes Blvd · East Columbia, TX 77486

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 212 Days on market

Built 2019 10,497 sqft lot $155/sqft · 26% below area Est $441k · 26% under · waterfront $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2040 Twin Lakes in the charming Columbia Lake Subdivision! This spacious over 2,000 sqft home is a perfect blend of comfort and style, featuring four bedrooms, two full baths, a formal dining room for those special gatherings, and a flexible office space for work or hobbies. Step into the open-concept living room, where large windows invite in natural light and offer a lovely view of your spacious backyard—ideal for summer barbecues or playtime with pets. This home has all the warmth and functionality you need, making it perfect for entertaining friends and family. Don’t miss your chance to call it home just in time for the holidays.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $325k implies a 3724% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,996 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,670
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -26.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2163 Twin Lakes Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (-2%)	9mo	$329,000	$160	71
2254 Lake Forrest Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-1%)	9mo	$249,900	$120	65
2224 Riveroaks Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,992 (-5%)	8mo	$330,000	$166	62
214 Montclaire Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-6%)	1mo	$365,990	$186	60
253 Prescott Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,034 (-3%)	8mo	$334,900	$165	55
212 Forest Park Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-10%)	3mo	$299,990	$160	54
230 Edgewater Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,902 (-9%)	4mo	$309,999	$163	54
2236 River Oaks Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (+5%)	8mo	$150,000	$68	53
2234 Lake Forrest Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-14%)	7mo	$324,900	$180	48
2280 Riveroaks Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-10%)	2mo	$399,999	$212	46
14 Augusta Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,954 (-7%)	9mo	$429,000	$220	43
223 Freeman Blvd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (-9%)	6mo	$316,990	$166	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $104,403
• Equity at exit: $238,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $319,526
• Equity at exit: $466,348

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$522 /mo · $6,265/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,137

Max offer price $263,996

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-161	-5% $-253	+0% $-345	+5% $-437	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-559	-5% $-452	+0% $-345	+5% $-239	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-263	base $-345	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2363 Ridgewood Dr West Columbia, TX	4.0	2.5	2555	$2,700	$1.06	26d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Pending 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Pending 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $325,000 Pending 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $325,000 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $333,000 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $333,000 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Welcome to 2040 Twin Lakes in the charming Columbia Lake Subdivision! This spacious over 2,000 sqft home is a perfect blend of comfort and style, featuring four bedrooms, two full baths, a formal dining room for those special gatherings, and a flexible office space for work or hobbies. Step into the open-concept living room, where large windows invite in natural light and offer a lovely view of your spacious backyard—ideal for summer barbecues or playtime with pets. This home has all the warmth and functionality you need, making it perfect for entertaining friends and family. Don’t miss your chance to call it home just in time for the holidays.

17. 2026-01-01
    price $338,000 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Welcome to 2040 Twin Lakes in the charming Columbia Lake Subdivision! This spacious over 2,000 sqft home is a perfect blend of comfort and style, featuring four bedrooms, two full baths, a formal dining room for those special gatherings, and a flexible office space for work or hobbies. Step into the open-concept living room, where large windows invite in natural light and offer a lovely view of your spacious backyard—ideal for summer barbecues or playtime with pets. This home has all the warmth and functionality you need, making it perfect for entertaining friends and family. Don’t miss your chance to call it home just in time for the holidays.

18. 2025-11-20
    listed $345,000 Active 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Welcome to 2040 Twin Lakes in the charming Columbia Lake Subdivision! This spacious over 2,000 sqft home is a perfect blend of comfort and style, featuring four bedrooms, two full baths, a formal dining room for those special gatherings, and a flexible office space for work or hobbies. Step into the open-concept living room, where large windows invite in natural light and offer a lovely view of your spacious backyard—ideal for summer barbecues or playtime with pets. This home has all the warmth and functionality you need, making it perfect for entertaining friends and family. Don’t miss your chance to call it home just in time for the holidays.

19. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus Sold 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful resort community of COLUMBIA LAKES! This 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH SINGLE STORY home is within proximity to many highways giving its owner easy access to north to HOUSTON or south to the BEACH and wildlife refuge areas. Located in a gated community, with 24-hour manned security, COLUMBIA LAKES also offers exceptional amenities both inside and outside your home to bring luxury and convenience to your life. Home amenities include a FRONT COVERED PORCH and a BACK COVERED PATIO, STUDY, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND AND PANTRY, BREAKFAST AREA. Master bath has DOUBLE SINKS, SOAKING TUB + SEPARATE SHOWER. Area amenities include an 18-hole, 7,000-yard golf course, an 8-court championship tennis complex, a 300-acre lake stocked with Trophy Bass for your fishing pleasure and a the picturesque Texas oak trees and crystal-clear lakes. This Al Salman Three home is waiting for your personal touches to make it yours. Contact your real estate professional today for more information!

20. 2019-11-21
    status Pending 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful resort community of COLUMBIA LAKES! This 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH SINGLE STORY home is within proximity to many highways giving its owner easy access to north to HOUSTON or south to the BEACH and wildlife refuge areas. Located in a gated community, with 24-hour manned security, COLUMBIA LAKES also offers exceptional amenities both inside and outside your home to bring luxury and convenience to your life. Home amenities include a FRONT COVERED PORCH and a BACK COVERED PATIO, STUDY, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND AND PANTRY, BREAKFAST AREA. Master bath has DOUBLE SINKS, SOAKING TUB + SEPARATE SHOWER. Area amenities include an 18-hole, 7,000-yard golf course, an 8-court championship tennis complex, a 300-acre lake stocked with Trophy Bass for your fishing pleasure and a the picturesque Texas oak trees and crystal-clear lakes. This Al Salman Three home is waiting for your personal touches to make it yours. Contact your real estate professional today for more information!

21. 2019-11-11
    status Option Pending 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful resort community of COLUMBIA LAKES! This 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH SINGLE STORY home is within proximity to many highways giving its owner easy access to north to HOUSTON or south to the BEACH and wildlife refuge areas. Located in a gated community, with 24-hour manned security, COLUMBIA LAKES also offers exceptional amenities both inside and outside your home to bring luxury and convenience to your life. Home amenities include a FRONT COVERED PORCH and a BACK COVERED PATIO, STUDY, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND AND PANTRY, BREAKFAST AREA. Master bath has DOUBLE SINKS, SOAKING TUB + SEPARATE SHOWER. Area amenities include an 18-hole, 7,000-yard golf course, an 8-court championship tennis complex, a 300-acre lake stocked with Trophy Bass for your fishing pleasure and a the picturesque Texas oak trees and crystal-clear lakes. This Al Salman Three home is waiting for your personal touches to make it yours. Contact your real estate professional today for more information!

22. 2019-07-03
    listed $289,900 Active 988-char remark

    Show marketing remark (988 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful resort community of COLUMBIA LAKES! This 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATH SINGLE STORY home is within proximity to many highways giving its owner easy access to north to HOUSTON or south to the BEACH and wildlife refuge areas. Located in a gated community, with 24-hour manned security, COLUMBIA LAKES also offers exceptional amenities both inside and outside your home to bring luxury and convenience to your life. Home amenities include a FRONT COVERED PORCH and a BACK COVERED PATIO, STUDY, KITCHEN WITH ISLAND AND PANTRY, BREAKFAST AREA. Master bath has DOUBLE SINKS, SOAKING TUB + SEPARATE SHOWER. Area amenities include an 18-hole, 7,000-yard golf course, an 8-court championship tennis complex, a 300-acre lake stocked with Trophy Bass for your fishing pleasure and a the picturesque Texas oak trees and crystal-clear lakes. This Al Salman Three home is waiting for your personal touches to make it yours. Contact your real estate professional today for more information!

23. 2018-09-04
    soldstatus
24. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus
25. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2018-07-16
    listed $26,500
27. 2018-07-16
    listed $26,500 Active
28. 2018-04-17
    soldstatus
29. 2018-04-17
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2018-02-01
    listed $24,900
31. 2018-02-01
    listed $24,900 Active
32. 2012-02-03
    soldstatus
33. 2011-04-27
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,265 · $522/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,265 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,265
• − Insurance: −$2,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$9,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,336
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Columbia

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3817.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $333,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $338,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-11-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-03 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2018-07-16 Listed $26,500 HARMLS
• 2018-07-16 Listed $26,500 BCBR
• 2018-04-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-04-17 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2018-02-01 Listed $24,900 HARMLS
• 2018-02-01 Listed $24,900 BCBR
• 2012-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,265 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.