105 Fernandez Rd Unit FM2501

Diboll, TX 75926

$98,890B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 253 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $342/mo
• Annual: $4,105/yr
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.82%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $27,689

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $936 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#708 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Apple Springs ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #829 of 1,141 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.