105 Fernandez Rd Unit FM2501 · Diboll, TX 75926

$98,890

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 253 Days on market

Built 1966 1.25 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 252 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#708 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Apple Springs ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #829 of 1,141 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $936 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,023 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.82%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $23,408
• Equity at exit: $33,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $66,810
• Equity at exit: $44,288

Cash invested: $27,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75926

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,667/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $884

Max offer price $98,890

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,722
• Closing costs: $2,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $98,890 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,890 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,890 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,890 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,890 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,890 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,890 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,890 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,890 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,890 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,890 Active 241 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,890 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,890 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,890 Active 235 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,890 Active 234 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $98,890 Active 233 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $107,459 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

18. 2026-04-04
    price $116,830 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

19. 2026-03-05
    price $126,960 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

20. 2026-02-02
    price $138,000 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

21. 2025-12-17
    price $149,900 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

22. 2025-11-18
    price $162,000 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

23. 2025-10-09
    listed $180,000 Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This property is being offered through an online auction event with Hubzu. Visit Hubzu for auction dates.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,810 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,539
• − Property taxes: −$1,667
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$2,877
• Taxable income: $2,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$649
• After-tax cash flow: $3,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808490
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,330
• Composite: 33.83/100
• National rank: #10376
• State rank: #829 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Diboll

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #708
• US rank: #13209

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,373

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 97.4909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $107,459 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $116,830 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $126,960 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $138,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $162,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,667 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.