5409 Ave D

Lubbock, TX 79404

$130,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $461/yr
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($461/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hodges El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 255 students, 98% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $130k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.