5409 Ave D · Lubbock, TX 79404

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1955 9,146 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great flip opportunity with easy access to Loop 289! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features 2 living areas, and a large backyard. A converted room could easily serve as a 4th bedroom, adding extra value. With plenty of potential, this property is ready for updates. Don't miss the chance to transform this home into a fantastic resale or long-term investment.

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Large laundry room
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• STYLISH NEW VINYL FLOORING
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• GAS TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected/available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Masonite construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as single-story (above-grade finished area reported)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Back yard fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing electric range; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric and gas utilities for HVAC; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with inside electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($461/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hodges El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 255 students, 98% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $130k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,268 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $19,656
• Equity at exit: $60,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $64,679
• Equity at exit: $93,912

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,731/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 52nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1044	$975	$0.93	21d	1	0.18mi
5614 Avenue A Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1129	$695	$0.62	21d	1	0.18mi
5512 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,000	$0.90	43d	1	0.21mi
812 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1282	$1,250	$0.98	21d	1	0.51mi
4606 Avenue C Unit C Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$999	$0.87	13d	1	0.55mi
520 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$850	$0.71	13d	1	0.60mi
519 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	13d	1	0.63mi
529 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$875	$0.80	13d	1	0.64mi
1307 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,150	$1.07	13d	1	0.70mi
531 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,090	$0.84	13d	1	0.72mi
220 44th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$910	$0.93	13d	1	0.73mi
1610 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.82mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	13d	1	0.83mi
1612 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.84mi
1614 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.85mi
1618 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	43d	1	0.87mi
1341 65th Dr Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$695	$0.69	21d	1	0.89mi
6130 Avenue P Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$1,100	$0.79	43d	1	0.95mi
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	13d	1	1.03mi
419 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1206	$950	$0.79	43d	1	1.07mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	21d	1	1.14mi
6518 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$700	$0.71	21d	1	1.16mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	13d	1	1.25mi
1718 43rd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,075	$0.57	21d	1	1.27mi
7006 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	1.28mi
2101 51st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	21d	1	1.30mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	21d	1	1.30mi
1920 45th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	1.30mi
1920 44th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$795	$0.57	21d	1	1.33mi
1923 67th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,525	$1.04	43d	1	1.37mi
312 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	13d	1	1.37mi
320 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	1.38mi
312 E 77th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,619	$1.24	43d	1	1.42mi
1927 71st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,600	$0.89	21d	1	1.43mi
7702 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,600	$1.09	13d	1	1.44mi
7704 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	13d	1	1.45mi
7715 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	21d	1	1.49mi
7717 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,899	$1.33	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $130,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-23
    price $150,000
20. 2026-03-12
    price $160,000
21. 2026-03-12
    listed $155,000 Active
22. 2025-10-08
    soldstatus
23. 2025-10-06
    soldstatus Closed 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Great flip opportunity with easy access to Loop 289! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features 2 living areas, and a large backyard. A converted room could easily serve as a 4th bedroom, adding extra value. With plenty of potential, this property is ready for updates. Don't miss the chance to transform this home into a fantastic resale or long-term investment.

24. 2025-09-24
    status Pending 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Great flip opportunity with easy access to Loop 289! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features 2 living areas, and a large backyard. A converted room could easily serve as a 4th bedroom, adding extra value. With plenty of potential, this property is ready for updates. Don't miss the chance to transform this home into a fantastic resale or long-term investment.

25. 2025-08-21
    listed $65,000 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Great flip opportunity with easy access to Loop 289! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features 2 living areas, and a large backyard. A converted room could easily serve as a 4th bedroom, adding extra value. With plenty of potential, this property is ready for updates. Don't miss the chance to transform this home into a fantastic resale or long-term investment.

26. 2020-05-27
    soldstatus
27. 2020-05-26
    soldstatus 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Charming investment home with easy access to Loop 289. 3 Bedroom, 1 bath, 2 living areas, large backyard. Vinyl flooring through-out Converted room could be used as 4 bedroom. Wonderful opportunity to own rental property with great occupants. This home is for investment purposes as it has tenants. Currently leased for $800/mo thru January 2021. Lease terms convey with purchase.

28. 2020-01-07
    listed $55,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Charming investment home with easy access to Loop 289. 3 Bedroom, 1 bath, 2 living areas, large backyard. Vinyl flooring through-out Converted room could be used as 4 bedroom. Wonderful opportunity to own rental property with great occupants. This home is for investment purposes as it has tenants. Currently leased for $800/mo thru January 2021. Lease terms convey with purchase.

29. 2019-01-09
    listed $55,000
30. 2016-08-26
    soldstatus
31. 2016-06-16
    listed $39,900
32. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus $43,400
33. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$648/yr (+$54/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,731
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,116
• − Management: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+245.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $150,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $155,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-06 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $65,000 LARMLS
• 2020-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-26 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2020-01-07 Listed $55,000 LARMLS
• 2019-01-09 Listed $55,000 LARMLS
• 2016-08-26 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2016-06-16 Listed $39,900 LARMLS
• 2006-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $43,400 Public Records
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,731 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.