2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,078 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 44 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,068/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$624
Tax + insurance
−$198
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$224
Net cashflow
$21/mo
Annual
$255/yr
Cap rate
6.51%
Cash-on-cash
0.77%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$33,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($255/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (10.3% below list).
It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $107k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Tioga 15 (rural): math 28% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #44 of 53 in ND (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #204 of 236 statewide, top 91%, 308 students, 11% FRL); Tioga High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #105 of 144 statewide, top 73%, 215 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Williams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Williams County population projected at +158% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4FT2Y05DQTKPJP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29