11424 US 431

Dunmor, KY 42339

$29,777B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built — · Other · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$156
• Tax + insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $630/mo
• Annual: $7,556/yr
• Cap rate: 31.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.63%
• DSCR: 5.03
• 1% rule: 3.44%
• Cash to close: $8,338

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $206 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $686 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#279 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Muhlenberg County (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #104 of 165 in KY (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Muhlenberg County High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 1,146 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Muhlenberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Muhlenberg County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $30k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 31.7% vs local median 2.5% in Dunmor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.