11424 US 431 · Dunmor, KY 42339

$29,777

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Other · 112 Days on market

0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MASSIVE POTENTIAL AT THE GATEWAY TO LAKE MALONE! Bring your toolkit and your vision to this 1,250 sq. ft. Dunmor original! Offering a generous footprint with 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 bath, this property is a blank canvas awaiting a total transformation. Situated on a sprawling 0.40-acre lot with high-visibility access along US 431, the possibilities are endless. Whether you envision a trendy short-term rental near the state park, a custom-tailored primary residence, or a high-yield flip, the "bones" of opportunity are here. Minutes from the sandstone cliffs and boating waters of Lake Malone, don't let this equity-builder slip away.

Key facts

• Sprawling lot
• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SPRAWLING LOT
• HIGH VISIBILITY ACCESS
• MINUTES FROM LAKE MALONE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with 2-car capacity
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Single story
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; State road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.7% vs local median 2.5% in Dunmor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#279 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Muhlenberg County (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #104 of 165 in KY (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Muhlenberg County High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 1,146 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Muhlenberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $206 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $686 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Muhlenberg County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $30k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,097 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.63%
• DSCR: 5.03
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $36,155
• Equity at exit: $5,371

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.06×
• Total profit: $83,891
• Equity at exit: $4,203

Cash invested: $8,338 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42339

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$156
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $134/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $228

Max offer price $29,777

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $638	+0% $630	+5% $621	+10% $613
Rent	-10% $549	-5% $589	+0% $630	+5% $670	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $645	-0.5pp $637	base $630	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,444
• Closing costs: $893
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,777 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,777 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,777 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,777 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,777 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,777 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,777 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,777 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,777 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,777 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,777 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,777 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,777 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,777 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $29,777 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-02-26
    listed $29,777 Active
17. 2002-09-27
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $134 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $256 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$122/yr (+$10/mo · 90.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,668
• − Property taxes: −$134
• − Insurance: −$149
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$866
• Taxable income: $7,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,803
• After-tax cash flow: $5,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muhlenberg County
• NCES district ID: 2100081
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $38,513
• Composite: 25.47/100
• National rank: #7444
• State rank: #104 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dunmor

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #13588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunmor, KY
• Population (ZIP): 878

Population outlook (Muhlenberg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,114 people
• By 2030: 29,347 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 27,828 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 26,359 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 23,095 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 19,709 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Vietnam

Political lean MEDSL · Muhlenberg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.4) · D 22.3% · R 76.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -52.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.4 2020: R+48.8 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Current HPI: 148.2234
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+197.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $29,777 WKRMLS
• 2002-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $134 · +38.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.