7 Jarvis Dr

Manlius, NY 13104

$280,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,855 sqft · Built 1980 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$741
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $185/mo
• Annual: $2,218/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in NY, #2,200 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $280k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.8% in Manlius — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.