7 Jarvis Dr · Manlius, NY 13104

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,855 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1980 0.26 ac lot $151/sqft · 7% below area Est $301k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this townhome located in the heart of Manlius. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1 half bath, this home features an open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning fireplace or relax year-round in the spacious 4-season room filled with natural light. The large primary bedroom offers plenty of space and comfort, while the updated bathrooms add a modern touch throughout the home. Additional features include a 2-car garage, blacktop driveway, tankless hot water system, newly installed mini splits, new siding, and a new roof for peace of mind. Step outside to enjoy the back deck and patio during the warmer months, perfect

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• 4-season room
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• 4-SEASON ROOM
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• TANKLESS HOT WATER SYSTEM
• NEWLY INSTALLED MINI SPLITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage with additional remarks
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 101 x 217

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless heating; Gas heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Sunroom/Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Gas water heater; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.8% in Manlius — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in NY, #2,200 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $280k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $280,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,096
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -7.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Jarvis Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,777 (-4%)	1mo	$176,000	$99	80
25 Fawn Rdg	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,962 (+6%)	22mo	$273,450	$139	47
10 Fawn Rdg	0.48mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,642 (-12%)	8mo	$311,001	$189	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,387
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-13,047
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13104

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,488/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,796

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $264	+0% $185	+5% $106	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $65	+0% $185	+5% $304	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $256	base $185	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4564 Stoneledge Ln Manlius, NY	4.0	2.5	1989	$3,200	$1.61	14d	1	0.08mi
4593 Brookhill Dr S Manlius, NY	4.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	22d	1	0.24mi
4618 Brickyard Falls Rd Manlius, NY	4.0	2.5	2082	$2,900	$1.39	45d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 932-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $280,000 Active 932-char remark
3. 2003-10-27
   soldstatus $137,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,488 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,488 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$7,488
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,909
• − Management: −$2,909
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$2,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $2,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayetteville-Manlius Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618330
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,156
• Composite: 71.12/100
• National rank: #238
• State rank: #49 of 590 in NY

Livability — Manlius

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manlius, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,504

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.90%
• Current HPI: 301.2994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+103.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $280,000 CNYIS
• 2003-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $137,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,488 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.