402 Clarksville

Bogata, TX 75417

$139,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · Built 1931 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-277/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-277/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#915 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rivercrest ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #212 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Red River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Red River County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 9893% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.