402 Clarksville · Bogata, TX 75417

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1931 $94/sqft · 14% below area Est $163k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious corner ½-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Recently updated and leveled, this home features an open-concept living and dining area that feels bright and inviting, highlighted by a cozy fireplace and a huge picture window that fills the space with natural light. The thoughtful layout makes everyday living and entertaining both easy and enjoyable. Step outside to a fenced yard with plenty of room to relax, garden, or let pets play freely. Located within walking distance from town, you’ll enjoy the benefits of small-town living with easy access to local shops, dining, and amenities. With its recent updates, generous lot size, and welcoming atmosphere, this property is a wonderful place to call home. Don’t miss your chance to see it!

Key facts

• Huge picture window
• Fenced yard
• Open-concept living

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED YARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• HUGE PICTURE WINDOW
• WALKING DISTANCE FROM TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-277/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#915 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rivercrest ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #212 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Red River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Red River County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 9893% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,872 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,027
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -14.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
332 S Lawson St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-0%)	9mo	$112,000	$75	63
195 S Howison	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,629 (+9%)	6mo	$58,000	$36	61
714 Clarksville Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-8%)	11mo	$170,000	$124	55
115 Brooks Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,682 (+13%)	7mo	$169,900	$101	39
637 S Bryson St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+12%)	20mo	$204,500	$122	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $72,718
• Equity at exit: $123,916

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $214,750
• Equity at exit: $265,008

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75417

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,474/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $135,823

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    historical $1,400
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $1,400
18. 2026-05-11
    historical $1,450
19. 2026-04-17
    listed $139,900 Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious corner ½-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Recently updated and leveled, this home features an open-concept living and dining area that feels bright and inviting, highlighted by a cozy fireplace and a huge picture window that fills the space with natural light. The thoughtful layout makes everyday living and entertaining both easy and enjoyable. Step outside to a fenced yard with plenty of room to relax, garden, or let pets play freely. Located within walking distance from town, you’ll enjoy the benefits of small-town living with easy access to local shops, dining, and amenities. With its recent updates, generous lot size, and welcoming atmosphere, this property is a wonderful place to call home. Don’t miss your chance to see it!

20. 2026-04-16
    listed $1,450
21. 2025-03-01
    historical $1,300
22. 2025-02-28
    historical $1,300
23. 2024-12-03
    listed $1,300
24. 2024-12-03
    listed $1,300
25. 2022-05-19
    price $1,300
26. 2021-05-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,474 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,086/yr (+$91/mo · 73.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,474
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,084
• − Management: −$1,084
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$649
• After-tax cash flow: $372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rivercrest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842120
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,064
• Composite: 40.93/100
• National rank: #3611
• State rank: #212 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bogata

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #915
• US rank: #16355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bogata, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,204

Population outlook (Red River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,454 people
• By 2030: 10,874 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 9,715 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 8,552 · -25.3%
• By 2075: 6,042 · -47.2%
• By 2100: 4,037 · -64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Red River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 19.0% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.79%
• Current HPI: 166.851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Rental Removed $1,400 Simplifyem
• 2026-05-12 Listed for Rent $1,400 Simplifyem
• 2026-05-11 Rental Removed $1,450 GTAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,450 GTAR
• 2025-03-01 Rental Removed $1,300 RENT.
• 2025-02-28 Rental Removed $1,300 GTAR
• 2024-12-03 Listed for Rent $1,300 RENT.
• 2024-12-03 Listed for Rent $1,300 GTAR
• 2022-05-19 Price Changed $1,300 RENT.
• 2021-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,474 · -43.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.