9 Chicken Valley Rd

Old Brookville, NY 11545

$2,199,999C

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,711 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $21,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,537
• Tax + insurance: −$3,471
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,515
• Net cashflow: $1,977/mo
• Annual: $23,720/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $616,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.15M (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.00M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.00M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,119 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Shore Central School District (suburban): math 88% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #24 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glen Head Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 371 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Middle School (math 84% / reading 84%, grade A+, #122 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 646 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Senior High School (math 100% / reading 72%, 764 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $815k; list at $2.20M implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.