9 Chicken Valley Rd · Old Brookville, NY 11545

$2,199,999

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,711 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2001 2.20 ac lot $467/sqft · 28% below area Est $3333k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sprawling Brick Expanded Ranch in Prestigious Old Brookville! Welcome to this impressive custom-expanded ranch, rebuilt in 2001 and nestled on 2.2 flat acres in the heart of Old Brookville. Offering over 5,100 sq ft of living space, this 6-bedroom, 3.5-bath home combines generous scale with a versatile open floor plan—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Highlights include a large living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the gourmet kitchen featuring a center island with seating for 8 , Wolf stove, and Sub-Zero refrigerator. A beautifully crafted library with custom mahogany millwork and a second fireplace adds warmth and sophistication. A spacious laundry room with double washers and dryers adds convenience. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a roughed-in en-suite bath awaiting your vision to complete. Upstairs offers a large bonus room with a full bath and ample storage—ideal for guests, office, or recreation. Outside, enjoy a peaceful, private setting with a vinyl in-ground pool, expansive patio, and lush grounds. The home also has a partial unfinished basement. Endless potential.

Key facts

• 2.2 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.15M (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.00M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,119 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Shore Central School District (suburban): math 88% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #24 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glen Head Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 371 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Middle School (math 84% / reading 84%, grade A+, #122 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 646 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Senior High School (math 100% / reading 72%, 764 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.00M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $815k; list at $2.20M implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,001,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,332,727
• List price: $2,199,999
• Delta: -33.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Hoaglands Ln	0.24mi	6/6.5	4,787 (+2%)	2mo	$2,750,000	$574	69
6 Longridge Ln	0.66mi	5/3.5 (-1)	4,975 (+6%)	6mo	$2,500,000	$503	46
101 Mccouns Ln	0.65mi	5/3.5 (-1)	4,355 (-8%)	19mo	$2,900,000	$666	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-230,393
• Equity at exit: $328,027

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-37,680
• Equity at exit: $190,216

Cash invested: $616,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11545

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,537
• Tax from tax record: −$2,555 /mo · $30,655/yr
• Insurance: −$917
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,515
• Net cashflow: $1,977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,998

Max offer price $2,199,999

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,222	-5% $2,599	+0% $1,977	+5% $1,354	+10% $731
Rent	-10% $278	-5% $1,127	+0% $1,977	+5% $2,826	+10% $3,675
Rate	-1.0pp $3,085	-0.5pp $2,536	base $1,977	+0.5pp $1,407	+1.0pp $827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $550,000
• Closing costs: $66,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Plaka Ct Glen Head, NY	6.0	6.0	5100	$21,500	$4.22	0d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Sprawling Brick Expanded Ranch in Prestigious Old Brookville! Welcome to this impressive custom-expanded ranch, rebuilt in 2001 and nestled on 2.2 flat acres in the heart of Old Brookville. Offering over 5,100 sq ft of living space, this 6-bedroom, 3.5-bath home combines generous scale with a versatile open floor plan—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Highlights include a large living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the gourmet kitchen featuring a center island with seating for 8 , Wolf stove, and Sub-Zero refrigerator. A beautifully crafted library with custom mahogany millwork and a second fireplace adds warmth and sophistication. A spacious laundry room with double washers and dryers adds convenience. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a roughed-in en-suite bath awaiting your vision to complete. Upstairs offers a large bonus room with a full bath and ample storage—ideal for guests, office, or recreation. Outside, enjoy a peaceful, private setting with a vinyl in-ground pool, expansive patio, and lush grounds. The home also has a partial unfinished basement. Endless potential.

2. 2026-02-09
   listed $2,199,999 Active 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Sprawling Brick Expanded Ranch in Prestigious Old Brookville! Welcome to this impressive custom-expanded ranch, rebuilt in 2001 and nestled on 2.2 flat acres in the heart of Old Brookville. Offering over 5,100 sq ft of living space, this 6-bedroom, 3.5-bath home combines generous scale with a versatile open floor plan—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Highlights include a large living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the gourmet kitchen featuring a center island with seating for 8 , Wolf stove, and Sub-Zero refrigerator. A beautifully crafted library with custom mahogany millwork and a second fireplace adds warmth and sophistication. A spacious laundry room with double washers and dryers adds convenience. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a roughed-in en-suite bath awaiting your vision to complete. Upstairs offers a large bonus room with a full bath and ample storage—ideal for guests, office, or recreation. Outside, enjoy a peaceful, private setting with a vinyl in-ground pool, expansive patio, and lush grounds. The home also has a partial unfinished basement. Endless potential.

3. 2026-02-07
   historical $2,199,999 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Sprawling Brick Expanded Ranch in Prestigious Old Brookville! Welcome to this impressive custom-expanded ranch, rebuilt in 2001 and nestled on 2.2 flat acres in the heart of Old Brookville. Offering over 5,100 sq ft of living space, this 6-bedroom, 3.5-bath home combines generous scale with a versatile open floor plan—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Highlights include a large living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the gourmet kitchen featuring a center island with seating for 8 , Wolf stove, and Sub-Zero refrigerator. A beautifully crafted library with custom mahogany millwork and a second fireplace adds warmth and sophistication. A spacious laundry room with double washers and dryers adds convenience. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a roughed-in en-suite bath awaiting your vision to complete. Upstairs offers a large bonus room with a full bath and ample storage—ideal for guests, office, or recreation. Outside, enjoy a peaceful, private setting with a vinyl in-ground pool, expansive patio, and lush grounds. The home also has a partial unfinished basement. Endless potential.

4. 2025-06-24
   listed $2,199,999 Active
5. 2001-01-26
   soldstatus $815,000
6. 1979-09-01
   soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $30,655 · $2,555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $33,918 · $2,826/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,262/yr (+$272/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $258,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$123,234
• − Property taxes: −$30,655
• − Insurance: −$11,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,640
• − Management: −$20,640
• − Depreciation: −$64,000
• Taxable loss: −$12,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,921
• After-tax cash flow: $26,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Shore Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626370
• Math proficiency: 88% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $113,973
• Composite: 78.77/100
• National rank: #69
• State rank: #24 of 590 in NY

Livability — Old Brookville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1119
• US rank: #23041

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Brookville, NY
• City population: 11,963
• Population (ZIP): 11,963

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Indo-European 13% Spanish 9% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.51%
• Current HPI: 279.7243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1319.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $2,199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Coming Soon $2,199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $2,199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $815,000 Public Records
• 1979-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $30,655 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.