906 Horseshoe Dr

Burnside, KY 42501

$167,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,711 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $359/mo
• Annual: $4,306/yr
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.21%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $46,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #110 of 676 statewide, top 17%, 655 students, 74% FRL); Southern Middle School (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D+, #32 of 217 statewide, top 15%, 941 students, 68% FRL); Southwestern High School (math 33% / reading 43%, grade F, #55 of 254 statewide, top 22%, 1,265 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $167k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.0% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.