106 State Sq

Cumberland, KY 40823

$50,000B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $529/mo
• Annual: $6,353/yr
• Cap rate: 19.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.38%
• DSCR: 3.02
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#263 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Elementary School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #469 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 449 students, 84% FRL); Harlan County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 997 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Red siding — Severe peeling and weathering
• Major: White trim — Significant chipping
• Major: Foundation — Cracks and unevenness
• Major: Roof — Visible discoloration and potential damage
• Major: Landscaping — Sparse and unkempt
• Major: Windows — Protective plastic suggests recent or ongoing repairs