106 State Sq · Cumberland, KY 40823

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Fair condition 6,098 sqft lot $40/sqft · 24% below area Est $66k · 24% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity / handyman special! This home features 4 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, a spacious living room, dining area, kitchen, and utility room. Ideal for renovation and resale or rental. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Listed 151 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#263 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Elementary School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #469 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 449 students, 84% FRL); Harlan County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 997 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.38%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,592
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -23.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
703 School Rd	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-13%)	8mo	$65,000	$60	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $26,228
• Equity at exit: $8,089

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $66,837
• Equity at exit: $5,419

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40823

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $547	+0% $529	+5% $512	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $486	+0% $529	+5% $573	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $542	base $529	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $50,000 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Investor opportunity / handyman special! This home features 4 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, a spacious living room, dining area, kitchen, and utility room. Ideal for renovation and resale or rental. Sold as-is.

15. 2026-01-21
    listed $70,000 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Investor opportunity / handyman special! This home features 4 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, a spacious living room, dining area, kitchen, and utility room. Ideal for renovation and resale or rental. Sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,418
• After-tax cash flow: $4,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including painting, repairing cracks, and replacing artificial turf. While it has potential, the current condition is not investor-ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major Red siding — Severe peeling and weathering
• Major White trim — Significant chipping
• Major Foundation — Cracks and unevenness
• Major Roof — Visible discoloration and potential damage
• Major Landscaping — Sparse and unkempt
• Major Windows — Protective plastic suggests recent or ongoing repairs

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace artificial turf — Natural grass would improve curb appeal and attract buyers
• Both Repair foundation cracks — Stabilizing the foundation increases safety and property value
• Both Clean and maintain windows — Clean windows improve natural light and overall home appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Red siding · Severe peeling and weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
White trim · Significant chipping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation · Cracks and unevenness	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Visible discoloration and potential damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Sparse and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Protective plastic suggests recent or ongoing repairs	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace artificial turf — Natural grass would improve curb appeal and attract buyers ↑
• Both Repair foundation cracks — Stabilizing the foundation increases safety and property value ↑
• Both Clean and maintain windows — Clean windows improve natural light and overall home appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #12948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.72%
• Current HPI: 191.1023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $50,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $70,000 ImagineMLS