399 W Baldwin Rd

Pleasant Plains, MI 49304

$40,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,808/yr
• Cap rate: 18.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.93%
• DSCR: 2.91
• 1% rule: 2.10%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($840 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 224 students, 97% FRL); Baldwin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #466 of 493 statewide, top 95%, 99 students, 98% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 119 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $40k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.