399 W Baldwin Rd · Pleasant Plains, MI 49304

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

Built 1960 1.33 ac lot $50/sqft · 37% below area Est $63k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project? This would be a great starter home or a rental. There is 1.3 acres with easy access off of Baldwin Road. Great recreational area. Bring your camper and plug into the electric, use the well and septic and work on the home. Close to 100 of acres of public land, the Pere Marquette River and ORV and snowmobile trails!

Key facts

• Easy access
• 1.3 acres
• Recreational area

Tags

• 1.3 ACRES
• EASY ACCESS
• RECREATIONAL AREA
• PUBLIC LAND
• PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
• ORV AND SNOWMOBILE TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($840 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 224 students, 97% FRL); Baldwin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #466 of 493 statewide, top 95%, 99 students, 98% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 119 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $40k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.93%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,496
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -37.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6483 S Emma Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	768 (-4%)	2mo	$141,000	$184	60
317 E Baldwin Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0	700 (-12%)	4mo	$18,497	$26	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $19,042
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $49,459
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $440/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $333

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $412	+0% $401	+5% $389	+10% $378
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $367	+0% $401	+5% $434	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $411	base $401	+0.5pp $390	+1.0pp $380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $40,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $40,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-01-24
   listed $40,000 Active 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Looking for a project? This would be a great starter home or a rental. There is 1.3 acres with easy access off of Baldwin Road. Great recreational area. Bring your camper and plug into the electric, use the well and septic and work on the home. Close to 100 of acres of public land, the Pere Marquette River and ORV and snowmobile trails!

7. 2026-01-24
   listed $40,000 Active 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Looking for a project? This would be a great starter home or a rental. There is 1.3 acres with easy access off of Baldwin Road. Great recreational area. Bring your camper and plug into the electric, use the well and septic and work on the home. Close to 100 of acres of public land, the Pere Marquette River and ORV and snowmobile trails!

8. 2026-01-24
   listed $40,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Looking for a project? This would be a great starter home or a rental. There is 1.3 acres with easy access off of Baldwin Road. Great recreational area. Bring your camper and plug into the electric, use the well and septic and work on the home. Close to 100 of acres of public land, the Pere Marquette River and ORV and snowmobile trails!

9. 2025-09-05
   historical
10. 2025-09-04
    historical
11. 2025-03-09
    listed $49,900 Active
12. 2025-03-09
    listed $49,900 Active
13. 2011-07-19
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $528 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$440
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$807
• − Management: −$807
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $3,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Pleasant Plains

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-24 Listed $40,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-09 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-03-09 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $440 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.