2013 Spring Valley Dr

Azle, TX 76020

$195,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,126/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $415/mo
• Annual: $4,979/yr
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.12%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#267 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Silver Creek El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 509 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.1% in Azle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.