2013 Spring Valley Dr · Azle, TX 76020

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1996 1.25 ac lot Est $247k · 21% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your Horses & Toys & come to the country! Plenty of room for your RV, boat, or ATV. Covered 4 car carport & covered RV carport (approximately 38' X 35'). Loafing shed, small barn, & Tuff Shed. Seller has worked hard to make this a little piece of heaven for you & your animals. So many possibilities!

Key facts

• Open land
• Covered parking
• Storage shed

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• OPEN LAND
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.1% in Azle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#267 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Silver Creek El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 509 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.12%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,104
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2013 Spring Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (+5%)	2mo	$259,000	$176	79
8656 S Fm 730	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+4%)	9mo	$195,000	$134	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,655
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $22,227
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,601

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $470	+0% $415	+5% $360	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $247	-5% $331	+0% $415	+5% $499	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $465	base $415	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $195,000
3. 2026-04-16
   status Active
4. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-28
   status Active
6. 2026-02-28
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-27
   historical Active Option Contract
8. 2026-01-20
   listed $299,999 Active
9. 2025-03-11
   soldstatus
10. 2025-03-06
    soldstatus Closed 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Bring your Horses & Toys & come to the country! Plenty of room for your RV, boat, or ATV. Covered 4 car carport & covered RV carport (approximately 38' X 35'). Loafing shed, small barn, & Tuff Shed. Seller has worked hard to make this a little piece of heaven for you & your animals. So many possibilities!

11. 2025-02-13
    status Pending 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Bring your Horses & Toys & come to the country! Plenty of room for your RV, boat, or ATV. Covered 4 car carport & covered RV carport (approximately 38' X 35'). Loafing shed, small barn, & Tuff Shed. Seller has worked hard to make this a little piece of heaven for you & your animals. So many possibilities!

12. 2025-02-03
    historical Active Option Contract 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Bring your Horses & Toys & come to the country! Plenty of room for your RV, boat, or ATV. Covered 4 car carport & covered RV carport (approximately 38' X 35'). Loafing shed, small barn, & Tuff Shed. Seller has worked hard to make this a little piece of heaven for you & your animals. So many possibilities!

13. 2024-03-18
    price $239,900 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Bring your Horses & Toys & come to the country! Plenty of room for your RV, boat, or ATV. Covered 4 car carport & covered RV carport (approximately 38' X 35'). Loafing shed, small barn, & Tuff Shed. Seller has worked hard to make this a little piece of heaven for you & your animals. So many possibilities!

14. 2023-08-30
    price $269,900 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Bring your Horses & Toys & come to the country! Plenty of room for your RV, boat, or ATV. Covered 4 car carport & covered RV carport (approximately 38' X 35'). Loafing shed, small barn, & Tuff Shed. Seller has worked hard to make this a little piece of heaven for you & your animals. So many possibilities!

15. 2023-08-10
    listed $250,000 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Bring your Horses & Toys & come to the country! Plenty of room for your RV, boat, or ATV. Covered 4 car carport & covered RV carport (approximately 38' X 35'). Loafing shed, small barn, & Tuff Shed. Seller has worked hard to make this a little piece of heaven for you & your animals. So many possibilities!

16. 2007-06-05
    soldstatus
17. 2006-10-10
    soldstatus
18. 1992-05-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,640/yr (+$137/mo · 85.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,930
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$463
• After-tax cash flow: $4,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Azle

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #267
• US rank: #6239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• City population: 34,602
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $299,999 NTREIS
• 2025-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-02-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-02-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-03-18 Price Changed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2023-08-30 Price Changed $269,900 NTREIS
• 2023-08-10 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2007-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,928 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.