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Tall Timbers, MD 22520

$199,500C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,730/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $142/mo
• Annual: $1,705/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $55,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#466 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $200k implies a 334% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in Tall Timbers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.