None · Tall Timbers, MD 22520

$199,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1976 0.82 ac lot $189/sqft · 28% below area Est $276k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming A-frame home set on a rare double lot totaling . 823 acres. Filled with natural light from abundant windows, this inviting property features beautiful hardwood floors, a cozy eat-in kitchen, and a spacious screened-in porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An ideal retreat for summer getaways or comfortable year-round living. Community amenities include a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, boat ramp, and beaches.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Clubhouse
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in Tall Timbers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#466 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $200k implies a 334% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,048 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,031
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -27.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Parrish Loop	0.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	17mo	$275,000	$239	54
46 Parrish Loop	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	15mo	$268,800	$224	49
1042 S Glebe Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	24mo	$340,000	$340	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,346
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,955
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22520

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,148/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $199	+0% $142	+5% $86	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $74	+0% $142	+5% $210	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $193	base $142	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Charming A-frame home set on a rare double lot totaling . 8 acres. Filled with natural light from abundant windows, this inviting property features beautiful hardwood floors, a cozy eat-in kitchen, and a spacious screened-in porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An ideal retreat for summer getaways or comfortable year-round living. Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, boat ramp, and beaches.

2. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Charming A-frame home set on a rare double lot totaling . 8 acres. Filled with natural light from abundant windows, this inviting property features beautiful hardwood floors, a cozy eat-in kitchen, and a spacious screened-in porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An ideal retreat for summer getaways or comfortable year-round living. Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, boat ramp, and beaches.

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $199,500 Active 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Charming A-frame home set on a rare double lot totaling . 8 acres. Filled with natural light from abundant windows, this inviting property features beautiful hardwood floors, a cozy eat-in kitchen, and a spacious screened-in porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An ideal retreat for summer getaways or comfortable year-round living. Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, boat ramp, and beaches.

4. 2026-03-31
   listed $199,500 Active 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Charming A-frame home set on a rare double lot totaling . 8 acres. Filled with natural light from abundant windows, this inviting property features beautiful hardwood floors, a cozy eat-in kitchen, and a spacious screened-in porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An ideal retreat for summer getaways or comfortable year-round living. Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, boat ramp, and beaches.

5. 2025-11-30
   historical
6. 2025-08-12
   price $215,000
7. 2025-07-13
   price $239,999
8. 2025-06-19
   listed $249,999 Active
9. 2025-06-17
   historical
10. 2019-08-09
    status Pending
11. 2019-08-08
    historical
12. 2019-08-05
    listed $110,000 Active
13. 1995-05-03
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,661 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$513/yr (+$43/mo · 44.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 43% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,148
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$1,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$403
• After-tax cash flow: $2,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tall Timbers

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #26296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,046
• Population (ZIP): 5,014

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.09%
• Current HPI: 155.4326
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+333.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — NNAR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $199,500 NNAR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $199,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $239,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $249,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-17 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-05 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,148 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.