10245 Beckenger Ave

Flagler Estates, FL 32145-0000

$200,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 661 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-305/mo
• Annual: $-3,665/yr
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 661 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Woods Elementary School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 689 students, 66% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 20% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $200k implies a 6567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 661 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.