10245 Beckenger Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145-0000

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · Manufactured public records · 661 Days on market

Built 1996 2.27 ac lot $130/sqft · 9% below area Est $219k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

Key facts

• 2.27 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 661 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Woods Elementary School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 689 students, 66% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 20% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 661 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $3k; list at $200k implies a 6567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,526 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 661 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,044
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -8.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10350 Beckenger Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	2mo	$215,000	$142	82
10230 Flikkema Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+4%)	7mo	$180,000	$112	66
10255 Delgado Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+5%)	22mo	$260,000	$160	57
10545 Carpenter Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+12%)	2mo	$365,000	$210	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,632
• Equity at exit: $89,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $43,771
• Equity at exit: $138,591

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145-0000

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,453/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $146,046

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-192	-5% $-249	+0% $-305	+5% $-362	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-409	-5% $-357	+0% $-305	+5% $-254	+10% $-202
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-255	base $-305	+0.5pp $-357	+1.0pp $-410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 661 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 660 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 656 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 655 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 654 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 653 DOM
7. 2026-04-18
   status Active 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

8. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

9. 2026-03-26
   price $200,000 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

10. 2026-02-24
    price $208,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

11. 2025-11-04
    price $220,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

12. 2025-07-06
    price $200,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

13. 2025-06-07
    price $225,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

14. 2025-05-02
    price $230,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

15. 2024-11-06
    price $235,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

16. 2024-09-20
    price $255,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

17. 2024-08-12
    listed $260,000 Active 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Hastings, 3-bedroom 2 bath mobile home, 1543 Sq Ft, built year 1996, home sits on 2.27 Acre with nice pond. New metal roof installed 1/26. This home is a fixer upper but has the potential to make a great rental property, for snowbirds looking for a winter home or someone looking to have a large property at an affordable price, property could also make a good horse property or hobby farm, lots of possibilities. No HOA, open rural zoning, 20-25 minutes to St Augustine, Palatka, Palm Coast, shopping and beaches. Call today.

18. 2007-10-12
    historical 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    PEACE & QUIET ON 2.5 ACRES ZONED OR. 1990 5TH WHEELER WITH BDRM/FULL BATH & KITCHEN INCL. GREAT IN-LAW SUITE. 20x10 SHED W/ELECTRIC. FIREPLACE, HDWD FLOORS/CERAMIC TILE, VAULTED CEILINGS, GARDEN JACUZZI TUB, WALK-IN CLOSETS. BEAUTIFUL LOTS W/HARDWOOD TREES. POND STOCKED WITH FISH. FHA FINANCING AVAILABLE.

19. 2006-10-13
    listed $159,000 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    PEACE & QUIET ON 2.5 ACRES ZONED OR. 1990 5TH WHEELER WITH BDRM/FULL BATH & KITCHEN INCL. GREAT IN-LAW SUITE. 20x10 SHED W/ELECTRIC. FIREPLACE, HDWD FLOORS/CERAMIC TILE, VAULTED CEILINGS, GARDEN JACUZZI TUB, WALK-IN CLOSETS. BEAUTIFUL LOTS W/HARDWOOD TREES. POND STOCKED WITH FISH. FHA FINANCING AVAILABLE.

20. 2003-01-13
    soldstatus $3,000
21. 2001-10-22
    soldstatus $72,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,453
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+174.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Relisted — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-04-14 Pending — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $200,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $208,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $220,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-07-06 Price Changed $200,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $225,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $230,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $235,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $255,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-08-12 Listed $260,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2007-10-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-10-13 Listed $159,000 realMLS
• 2003-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $3,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $72,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,453 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.