20 Morgan St

Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$1,294,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,016 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,703/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax + insurance: −$2,158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $-6,023/mo
• Annual: $-72,279/yr
• Cap rate: 0.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.94%
• DSCR: 0.11
• 1% rule: 0.29%
• Cash to close: $362,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $1.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-72k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (67.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (71.4% below list).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $370k (71.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; list at $1.29M implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 71% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.